The average amount spent per eating-out visit in the UK reached £18.35 in Q1 2026, representing a 5.5 per cent increase on the equivalent period in 2025, according to tracking data from Lumina Intelligence. The figure is driven primarily by continued menu price inflation across chain and independent operators, with cost pass-through running well ahead of the Consumer Prices Index, which the Office for National Statistics confirmed at 3.3 per cent in March 2026.
Where Prices Are Rising Fastest
Lumina's summer-to-summer dish price comparisons — tracking the same menu items across successive menus — show same-line price increases of 3.5 per cent in chain restaurants and 4.2 per cent in pubs and bars between summer 2024 and summer 2025. The differential matters: CPI food inflation ran at approximately 0.9 percentage points during the same measurement window, meaning operators are increasing prices at roughly three to four times the rate of headline consumer food inflation.
The sharpest increases are concentrated in specific menu categories. Sides have risen 5.3 per cent on a same-line basis, while bread and cover charges — used by many operators as a low-friction revenue line — increased 12.9 per cent. Both categories are less price-sensitive to consumer scrutiny than main-course pricing, which makes them attractive levers for margin recovery without triggering the value-perception damage that comes from visible main-course increases.
Menu Engineering as the Central Strategic Tool
Lumina's analysis describes a broad shift toward more deliberate menu engineering as the dominant pricing strategy for 2026. The approach involves constructing menus with clearly tiered entry and exit price points — lower-cost dishes at the foot of sections to satisfy value-seeking guests, higher-cost premium items at the top to pull average spend upward — rather than applying uniform price increases across the board.
The use of sides and extras as margin-enhancing add-ons is a complementary technique. Operators who have successfully separated the upsell architecture of sides from the core dish price — charging £4.50 to £6.50 for sides that were previously included or implied in a full-plate format — have reported improved achieved margins without corresponding drops in cover counts.
Set menus and meal deals remain a significant tool for managing perceived value. Mintel's eating-out review data indicates that 54 per cent of diners used a meal deal in 2025, and 43 per cent of restaurant diners chose a set menu option — figures that reflect how strongly operators have promoted fixed-price formats as the cost-of-living cycle has extended.
The Consumer Response
Consumer behaviour data suggests diners are managing spend at the point of order rather than reducing visit frequency dramatically. Lumina tracks a pattern of "entry-point anchoring" — guests gravitating toward the cheaper end of the main course section while being more willing to add one side or a dessert when the table is shared. This behaviour produces a broadly stable average transaction value for operators even as individual diners become more selective.
Mintel's separate survey data, drawn from its UK Eating Out Review 2026, indicates a persistent cohort of consumers who have reduced eating-out frequency materially — down from approximately three visits per month to fewer than two — but this group skews toward lower-income households and younger renters under acute affordability pressure. Among working-age consumers in full-time employment, visit frequency has held broadly steady.
Implications for the Remainder of 2026
The April 2026 National Living Wage increase to £12.71 — the primary driver of wage cost pressure this year — lands in the second-quarter P&Ls of most operators. Early indications from sector reporting suggest that operators who implemented menu price adjustments in Q1 are better positioned to absorb the wage uplift than those who deferred pricing decisions. Lumina's forward-looking data points to continued same-line price growth of 3 to 4 per cent through summer 2026, with the question of whether consumer demand can sustain further increases becoming the central test for operator finance directors as the year's busier trading months arrive.